Newsroom
FOMC members not yet concerned about recession
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the Federal Reserve's monetary policy-setting arm – indicated that the labor market has remained strong, though economic activity has slowed since the fourth quarter, according to minutes from the committee's March meeting released Wednesday.
"The FOMC minutes show a committee that believes interest rates are at neutral, or at least close enough," said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long. "A rate hike in 2019 seems likely to seriously upset financial markets, and this committee appears content to leave things unchanged barring a very compelling reason to intervene. At the same time, the committee is not yet concerned that a recession is approaching."
With regard to the outlook for monetary policy, a majority of FOMC participants believed that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target rate unchanged for the rest of the year.
The minutes also revealed that participants did not expect spending weaknesses to persist past the first quarter, but that the growth rate of real GDP growth would likely be lower than 2018 due to slower foreign growth and waning effects of fiscal stimulus.
Following the March meeting, the committee left the federal funds target rate at a range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent.
Wednesday's minutes also revealed:
- sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions and inflation near the committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes over the next few years;
- residential investments softened further in the first quarter after falling in the fourth quarter, due to decreases in housing affordability and rising mortgage interest rates; and
- financing conditions in consumer credit markets were little changed in recent months and remained generally supportive of household spending.
The FOMC will meet again April 30-May 1.
Share This
Related Resources
Add to Calendar 2024-06-26 14:00:00 2024-06-26 14:00:00 Gallagher Executive Compensation and Benefits Survey About the Webinar The webinar will share trends in executive pay increases, annual bonuses, and nonqualified benefit plans. Learn how to use the data charts as well as make this data actionable in order to improve your retention strategy. You’ll hear directly from the survey project manager on how to maximize the data points to gain a competitive edge in the market. Key findings on: Total compensation by asset size Nonqualified benefit plans Bonus targets and metrics Prerequisites Demographics Board expenses Watch On-Demand Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Gallagher Executive Compensation and Benefits Survey
preferred partner
Gallagher
Webinar
Add to Calendar 2024-06-21 09:00:00 2024-06-21 09:00:00 2024 Mid-Year Fraud Review Listen On: Key Takeaways: [01:16] Check fraud continues to be rampant across the country. Card fraud is affecting everyone. [04:31] Counterfeit US passport cards are just another new toolbox in the bad actors’ toolbox. [07:21] Blocking the fallback is the only way to defeat counterfeit cards. [11:17] The best way is constant education to your members in as many channels as you can. [13:02] We are still seeing overdraft lawsuits. Make sure the programming you have at your credit union matches what you have displayed for the members. Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
2024 Mid-Year Fraud Review
Strategy & Growth, Consumer Lending
preferred partner
Allied Solutions
Podcast
Add to Calendar 2024-06-21 09:00:00 2024-06-21 09:00:00 The Evolving Role of the CISO in Credit Unions Listen On: Key Takeaways: [01:30] Being able to properly implement risk management decisions, especially in the cyber age we live in, is incredibly important so CISOs have a lot of challenges here. [02:27] Having a leader who can really communicate cyber risks and understand how ready that institution is to deal with cyber events is incredibly important. [05:36] We need to be talking about risk openly. We need to be documenting and really understanding what remediating risk looks like and how you do that strategically. [16:38] Governance, risk, compliance, and adherence to regulatory controls are all being looked at much more closely. You are also seeing other technology that is coming into the fold directly responsible for helping CISOs navigate those waters. [18:28] The reaction from the governing bodies is directly related to the needs of the position. They’re trying to help make sure that we are positioned in a way that gets us the most possibility of success, maturing our postures and protecting the institutions. Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
The Evolving Role of the CISO in Credit Unions
preferred partner
DefenseStorm
Podcast
Get daily updates.
Subscribe to NAFCU today.