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Consumer credit grew at slower pace than normal in July
Total consumer credit rose 6.2 percent, at a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate, in July and is up 7.7 percent compared to a year ago. Revolving credit - primarily credit cards - rose 11.6 percent this month and is up 14.3 percent compared to July 2021. Non-revolving credit – primarily auto loans and education loans – rose 4.4 percent this month and is up 5.7 percent from a year ago.
“The 6.2 percent annualized pace during the month is still brisk by historical standards, but it is noticeably lower than the 8.7 percent average over the past six months,” said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long in the latest Macro Data Flash report. “Revolving debt growth still reached double digits in July, marking the fifth time in six months it has done so.
"Credit card balances and other short-term loans are still growing swiftly as households struggle to make ends meet," added Long. "Supply considerations may be playing a factor in the mild deceleration.”
Total consumer credit for credit unions rose 1.5 percent, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in July, compared to a 0.5 percent gain for banks and 0.4 percent increase for financial companies. From a year prior, total consumer credit at credit unions rose 13.3 percent, while banks experienced a 12.4 percent gain and financial companies rose 1.3 percent.
Over the past 12 months, credit unions’ share of the market rose 0.8 percentage points to 12.8 percent. Banks’ share rose by 1.8 percentage points to 41.8 percent, and financial companies' share fell by 1.0 percentage points to 12.4 percent.
“The Federal Reserve's most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey found that consumer loan standards were unchanged over the prior three months, but that stands in contrast to prior periods which saw substantial easing,” noted Long.
"As consumers and lenders deal with a flagging economy, NAFCU expects that consumer credit growth will slow further," concluded Long.
For more up-to-date economic insights from NAFCU's award-winning research team, view NAFCU's Macro Data Flash reports.