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The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued the October jobs report on Friday, which revealed that the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7 percent during the month. NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long analyzed the report in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report.  

“The October jobs report showed that the labor market is cooling,” said Long. “There was another large discrepancy between the household and establishment surveys. The former showed a rise in the unemployment rate despite a decline in labor force participation.”

Non-farm payrolls increased last month by 261,000, while the September (-23,000) and August (+52,000) payrolls were further adjusted.

Results among every major private sector industry were positive in October. Education and health led the way with 79,000 jobs, followed by professional and business services (+39,000), then leisure and hospitality (+35,000).

“However, the number of people working part-time for economic reasons fell, and the number of permanent job losers increased only slightly,” noted Long. “The establishment survey was better, indicating a gain of 261,000 jobs during the month. But that still represents the lowest monthly gain in nearly two years.”  

Labor force participation was virtually unchanged at 62.2 percent. Average hourly earnings grew 12 cents in October, while year-over-year wage growth was at 4.7 percent.  

“While there were some mixed signals in this report, it points to a market that is loosening incrementally,” concluded Long. “Next week’s CPI release will be more important to the FOMC, but job market trends support a step down to a 50-basis point rate hike in December.”

For more up-to-date economic updates from NAFCU's award-winning research team, view NAFCU's Macro Data Flash reports.