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Vehicle sales rise in June; NAFCU expects sales to remain muted, volatile
Total vehicle sales rose from 12.7 million annualized units in May to 13 million annualized units in June, with monthly sales levels down 16 percent year-over-year. NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long analyzes the data in a new Macro Data Flash report.
"Auto sales rose slightly in June after falling to the lowest level of the calendar year in May," said Long. "In the first half of June, used car prices stayed flat according to Manheim, but a decline in prices is anticipated for the second half of the month due to the increase in used inventories.
"The average new-vehicle transaction price was estimated to have reached $45,844 in June according to J.D. Power," Long added. "That price represents a 14.5 percent increase from a year ago and about $1,000 more than just last month.”
Car sales stayed flat at 2.7 million annualized units last month, and light truck sales rose from 10 million annualized units to 10.3 million.
Domestic production in June was up 19.1 percent from the same month in 2021. Inventory increased slightly to 0.52 months of sales in June.
"The inventory situation is improving, but supply remains extremely tight. Domestic production hit a 16-month high in May, but that is still 27 percent lower than May 2019,” added Long. “Even if production were to return to normal levels, the marginal buyer would likely be increasingly rate sensitive, which could limit sales in the midst of rising interest rates.
“NAFCU expects auto sales to remain muted and volatile over the rest of the year, as relief from supply shortages looks increasingly unlikely in 2022 and many car buyers are turned off by higher rates and recessionary concerns,” concluded Long.
For more up-to-date economic insights from NAFCU's award-winning research team, view NAFCU's Macro Data Flash reports.