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On a seasonally adjusted basis, overall consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in September, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting the overall consumer price index (CPI) grew by 5.4 percent over the 12-month period. In the latest Macro Data Flash report, NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research noted “This is slightly faster than last month, but still much lower than the pace since February.”

Core prices (excluding food and energy costs) rose 0.2 percent compared to August. Year-over-year core CPI growth was 4 percent. 

"Prices dropped for airfare (-6.4 percent), apparel (-1.1 percent), and used cars and trucks  (-0.7 percent) after rapid increases earlier this summer," said Long. 

Energy prices rose 1.3 percent during the month, following a 2.0 percent rise in August. From a year ago, energy prices were up 24.8 percent. Additionally, food prices rose 0.9 percent in September and were up 3.4 percent compared to this time last year. 

"Supply chains woes are still causing ripple effects that are driving up prices and limiting supply," added Long. "West Coast ports recently announced that longshoremen will begin working around the clock to unload ships stuck in port. Large retailers are committing to increase their efforts to clear ports as well, as worries mount that inventory shortages will hamstring the holiday shopping season.

"The Fed remains adamant that inflation will cool over time and inflationary pressures will abate as supply bottle necks ease, but housing costs will be key. Rental Prices grew at their fastest pace since 2006 and seem sure to rise further. A rate hike appears unlikely until the latter half of next year, but the Fed’s resolve will be tested by elevated inflation readings that will last at least through the middle of 2022," concluded Long.