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CPI remains flat in October, NAFCU expects near-zero rates through 2021
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, overall consumer prices were flat in October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the overall consumer price index (CPI) grew 1.2 percent over the 12-month period.
"The moderation in overall price growth over the past few months likely points to a plateauing in spending," said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long in a new Macro Data Flash report. "However, it may also reflect the alleviation of supply shortages as consumer goods production picked up considerably over the summer."
Energy prices rose 0.1 percent during the month, following a 0.8 rise in September. From a year ago, energy prices were down 9.1 percent. Additionally, food growth was up 0.2 percent in October and rose 3.9 percent on a year-over-year basis.
"Inflationary concerns are still nowhere in view, and the FOMC will have no impetus to hike in the near future, particularly in the absence of more fiscal spending," Long added. "NAFCU expects near-zero rates to remain in place at least through the end of 2021."
Core prices (excluding food and energy costs) were also flat in October. Year-over-year core CPI growth was 1.6 percent.