Musings from the CU Suite

Written by Anthony Demangone

Social media and our 24-hour news cycle have a tendency to distort reality. It isn't that both information channels intentionally mislead us. Rather, both have a tendency to focus on a very small number of issues. 

If an alien visited our world today, "it" might think that the number one issue facing our planet is whatever the owner of the Los Angeles Clippers is doing today. I just visited CNN's website, and they are focusing on Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl's homecoming, the plane crash involving a Philadelphia news executive, and the fact that a whale has washed up on shore in California.

What's missing?  A great deal. This missing story is referred to as "silent evidence." 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his book, The Black Swan, talks a great deal about silent evidence. He uses a story from Cicero to highlight the issue.

Diagoras, a nonbeliever in the gods, was shown painted tablets bearing the portraits of some worshippers who prayed, then survived a subsequent shipwreck. The implication was that praying protects you from drowning. 

Diagoras asked, “Where are the pictures of those who prayed, then drowned?”

The winners often tell the story, and we don't have a great way of hearing from the losers. You often hear about some lady or gentlemen who turned their life around by flipping homes, day trading, or getting into the healthy food vending business. 

The winners are driving nice cars, live in large houses, and seemingly have a wonderful life. But what about the losers? Those who went down that path, and struck out? Silent evidence. 

This issue popped up again recently, when Marc Andreessen, a successful American entrepreneur, said not to follow your passion in a series of tweets.  He argues that you almost always hear "follow your dreams" from someone who did so, and succeeded. That's not the whole story, he said.

So, where does that leave us?

All of us want to succeed.  And it is tempting to look at other people, organizations and systems that succeed. If you mirror them, you should see similar results, correct? 

All the "silent evidence" doctrine says is ... slow down. You might not be getting the whole story. Where are the losers? Where's the other side of the story? 

Where's the silent evidence?

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