Musings from the CU Suite

Written by Anthony Demangone

Risk is a funny fellow. He's hard to nail down. And just when you think you've spotted him, he ducks down and reappears elsewhere. 

I'm sure many of you have seen the following "meme." 

I doubt there will ever be a horror flick based on cows.  But year after year, they are far more dangerous than sharks. There are countless other examples.

• Which is safer? Taking the elevator or the stairs? By far, the elevator is safer. 
• The chance of a fatality is five times higher on the trip to the airport than on the flight itself. 

But even the most sophisticated have a hard time spotting risk. How many financial experts called the last financial crisis?  A vivid example of this comes in the book, Black Swan. 

The book, written by Nassim Taleb, is dedicated to the idea that we are pretty bad at spotting risk and predicting the future. In the book, Taleb talks about a casino that spent millions of dollars trying to spot and deflect risk. Cheating gamblers. Corrupt pit bosses. And such.

But the casino never really considered how bad it would be if one of the tigers that was the center of its main act attacked one of the stars. The tiger did attack, and the lawsuits, lost ticket sales and other repercussions cost the casino $100 million. 

So, to the risk managers out there - you have my respect.

Like I said...risk is a funny fellow. 

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